2220-2404 2221-1373 ГУМАНИТАРНЫЕ, СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ И ОБЩЕСТВЕННЫЕ НАУКИ HUMANITIES, SOCIAL-ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ООО «Наука и образование» 10.24412/2220-2404-2026-4-33 экономические науки economic sciences СРАВНИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ КАК МЕТОД ОЦЕНКИ ТОВАРНЫХ ОБЛИГАЦИЙ В РИСК-МЕНЕДЖМЕНТЕ РЕСУРСНЫХ КОМПАНИЙ COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AS A METHOD FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY BONDS IN RESOURCE COMPANIES' RISK MANAGEMENT Исмаилов Гейдар Аташ оглы Исмаилов Гейдар Аташ оглы Ismailov Geidar A. geidar.ismailov.1998@gmail.com 0009-0007-0806-7815 Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 25 04 2026 2026 4 15 03 2026 20 04 2026 © Исмаилов Г.А., 2026 2026 Исмаилов Г.А. Geidar A. Ismailov CC BY 3.0

Актуальность: Рост долговой нагрузки ресурсных компаний в условиях волатильности товарных рынков и валютных курсов обусловливает необходимость поиска альтернативных инструментов управления финансовыми рисками, в частности товарных облигаций. Цель: обосновать применимость сравнительного анализа как метода оценки эффективности товарных облигаций на уровне ресурсной компании и выстроить концептуальный каркас для такого анализа. Задачи: сформировать теоретическую базу применимости сравнительного анализа; разработать систему показателей и аналитический каркас для сопоставления классических и товарных облигаций. Методы: сравнительный анализ, концепция естественного хеджирования, трёхуровневая система финансовых показателей, симуляция Монте-Карло с вариацией параметра доли товарных облигаций (k) и генерацией сценариев динамики цен и валютных курсов. Результаты: разработан трёхуровневый каркас анализа с 5 сценариями; в качестве ключевого показателя предложен свободный денежный поток на собственный капитал (FCFE); сформирован набор метрик риска: VaR, Expected Shortfall и стандартное отклонение FCFE. Выводы: сравнительный анализ методологически корректен при соблюдении принципа ceteris paribus, обоснованном выборе показателей и явном обозначении ограничений исследования.

Relevance: the growing debt burden of resource companies amid commodity market and exchange rate volatility necessitates the search for alternative financial risk management instruments, particularly commodity bonds. Purpose: to substantiate the applicability of comparative analysis as a method for evaluating the effectiveness of commodity bonds at the resource company level and to construct a conceptual framework for such analysis. Objectives: to establish a theoretical basis for the applicability of comparative analysis; to develop an indicator system and analytical framework for comparing conventional and commodity bonds. Methods: comparative analysis, the natural hedging concept, a three-tier financial indicator system, and Monte Carlo simulation with variation of the commodity bond share parameter (k) and generation of commodity price and exchange rate scenarios. Findings: a three-tier analytical framework comprising five scenarios was developed; Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) was proposed as the key indicator; a risk metric set was formed, including VaR, Expected Shortfall, and FCFE standard deviation. Conclusions: comparative analysis is methodologically sound when the ceteris paribus principle is observed, indicators are appropriately selected, and the study's limitations are explicitly stated.

 Ключевые слова товарные облигации сравнительный анализ управление рисками ресурсные компании естественное хеджирование свободный денежный поток структура капитала Keywords commodity bonds comparative analysis risk management resource companies natural hedging free cash flow capital structure инициативная работа Independent work Исмаилов Г. А. Развитие рынка товарных облигаций // Экономика строительства. 2025. № 9. С. 408-410. EDN: SWMFYY Исмаилов Г. А. Методология оценки влияния товарных облигаций на риски финансирования ресурсных компаний // Финансовые рынки и банки. 2026. № 1. С. 305-307. EDN: IRJGOL O'Hara M. Commodity Bonds and Consumption Risks // The Journal of Finance. 1984. Vol. XXXIX. No. 1. P. 193-206. Schwartz E. S. The Pricing of Commodity-Linked Bonds // The Journal of Finance. 1982. Vol. 37. No. 2. P. 525-539. Carr P. A Note on the Pricing of Commodity-Linked Bonds // The Journal of Finance. 1987. Vol. 42. No. 4. P. 1071-1076. Atta-Mensah J. 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